The Institute of Strategic Risk Management, (ISRM), has announced its latest Global Crisis Watch sessions, numbers 378 and 379, which will take place this Friday, October 10 at 10am BST and 5pm BST, 12pm EST, respectively. This week, the conversation will focus on the following topics – Israel and Hamas moving toward ceasefire two years after 7 October, Carney meeting Trump at White House to revive stalled Canada–US Trade Talks, France in turmoil as PM Lecornu quits after just 26 days in office, Nile floods deepening Egypt–Ethiopia rift over mega-dam. Read more, and register below.
Israel and Hamas move toward ceasefire two years after October 7
Negotiations to finalize a Gaza ceasefire based on US President Donald Trump’s peace plan are underway in Egypt, with sources reporting progress between Israel and Hamas. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to join the talks alongside Israeli Minister Ron Dermer and Qatar’s prime minister.
The talks coincide with commemorations marking two years since Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which killed 1,200 people and took more than 250 hostages. The attack triggered a devastating Israeli campaign in Gaza that has since killed over 67,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and displaced 90% of the enclave’s population. Parts of Gaza are now experiencing famine, and an independent UN inquiry has accused Israel of genocide – allegations Israel denies, saying it is acting in self-defence against Hamas.
Israel’s war, which has extended to clashes with Iran and its allies in Lebanon and Syria, has left the country deeply divided. Despite significant military gains, including the killing of senior militants and Iranian officials, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces growing domestic criticism for failing to secure the release of remaining hostages. Only 48 captives remain in Gaza, with around 20 believed to be alive. Hamas insists they will only be freed in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal.
Carney meets Trump at White House to revive stalled Canada–US Trade Talks
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney met US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday, October 7, in a bid to revive stalled trade talks and ease tensions over US tariffs on Canadian goods. The meeting – Carney’s second visit to Washington this year – was billed as a “working visit”, with both sides seeking to restore momentum toward a new trade and security arrangement, though no major breakthrough was expected.
Negotiations have stretched over the summer, surpassing the initial August deadline set by the two leaders. Canada remains the only G7 nation yet to finalize a trade deal with Trump’s administration this year. While 85% of Canadian exports to the US remain tariff-free under the USMCA (United States – Mexico – Canada Agreement) trade pact, key industries – including steel, aluminium and automobiles – have been hit with tariffs ranging from 25% to 50%.
Carney is under growing domestic pressure to deliver results. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre warned that returning home without tariff relief would be seen as a failure for Canadian workers and businesses. Public trust in the US has dropped significantly, with recent polls showing six in ten Canadians believe their country can no longer fully trust Washington – sentiments heightened by Trump’s repeated remarks suggesting Canada should become “the 51st state”.
France in turmoil as PM Lecornu quits after just 26 days in office
France has plunged into another political crisis after Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on Monday, October 6, just 26 days after taking office – making him the shortest-serving premier in the history of the Fifth Republic. His departure marks the third resignation of a French prime minister in under a year, drawing attention to the deep paralysis within the country’s fractured political system.
Lecornu, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron on September 9 to replace François Bayrou, stepped down less than 24 hours after announcing his new cabinet, which drew fierce criticism from across the political spectrum. The inclusion of former finance minister Bruno Le Maire as defence minister became a particular flashpoint, prompting conservatives to withdraw their support. Le Maire later quit the cabinet in an attempt to defuse the crisis.
Hours after resigning, Lecornu accepted Macron’s request to spend the next two days exploring whether a “stability plan” could still be forged through negotiations with political parties. Macron, struggling with record-low approval ratings, must now decide whether to reappoint Lecornu, name yet another prime minister, or dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections – a move likely to favour Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.
Nile floods deepen Egypt–Ethiopia rift over mega-dam
Surging Nile waters have flooded parts of Egypt and Sudan, reigniting tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In Egypt’s northern Menoufia Governorate, residents were forced to use boats to navigate submerged streets after rising waters inundated homes and fields. Locals described this year’s flooding as far more severe than usual.
Seasonal Nile floods are common, typically powered by monsoon rains in the Ethiopian Highlands, but this year a late surge has moved downstream, intensifying humanitarian strain in both countries. In Sudan, the UN migration agency reported that floods displaced around 1,200 families in Bahri, Khartoum state, last week – further worsening the situation of the country’s 18-month civil war.
Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation blamed Ethiopia for what it called a “man-made, late flood”, accusing Addis Ababa of “reckless unilateral” dam operations. Cairo said that sharp, unannounced water releases following the dam’s September 9 inauguration – rising from roughly 485 million cubic metres on September 10 to 780 million by September 27 – strained Sudan’s Roseires Dam and sent excess water downstream.
- GCW 378
- 10:00 /BST/
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- GCW 379
- 17:00 /BST/, 12:00 /EDT/
- REGISTRATION >>
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