The Institute of Strategic Risk Management (ISRM) is pleased to announce another major milestone Global Crisis Watch – number 300, which takes place tomorrow, November 8 at 10.00 GMT. ISRM says it is proud to continue sharing crucial insights on global issues and events with its vast, international community. Each one contributes to a growing archive, capturing history as it unfolds and building a legacy of knowledge for future generations. Here’s to many more! This week, there is just one topic up for discussion – Donald Trump winning a second term in the US Presidential elections. Read more about the topic below.
Donald Trump secured a second term in office, winning the 2024 US presidential election after surpassing the crucial 270 electoral votes, with Wisconsin’s victory cementing his path to the White House. Trump’s projected electoral vote count stands at 277, with Kamala Harris at 223 as vote counts continue in remaining states. Trump’s success also reflects a surprising shift in demographic support, including increased backing from Black and Hispanic voters, and Republicans are on track to regain control of the Senate, signaling a significant swing in US political dynamics.
Exit polls reveal nuanced voting patterns, with gender, race, and age playing crucial roles. Women favored Harris at 54%, though this represents a slight decline from the 57% support Joe Biden enjoyed among female voters in 2020. Trump saw strong support among white voters, particularly rural and non-college-educated individuals, while Harris led among Black voters. Despite this, Trump’s appeal among Black voters rose to 20%, up from 12% in 2020, signaling an effective Republican outreach in this traditionally Democratic demographic.
A notable shift occurred within the Hispanic community. Trump garnered significant gains among Latino male voters, capturing 18 percentage points more than in the previous election and bolstering his position among working-class and lower-income groups affected by inflation. Young voters, while largely favoring Harris, showed a five-point decline from Biden’s 2020 numbers, particularly in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Trump lost some support among voters aged 65 and above, though this was offset by gains in younger demographics.
The 2024 election also saw Republicans flip the Senate, ending the Democrats’ control of the chamber. High-profile wins in West Virginia, where Republican Jim Justice replaced retiring independent Joe Manchin, and Ohio, where Republican Bernie Moreno unseated Democrat Sherrod Brown, contributed to the Republican majority. The GOP retained its House majority, and with control of both congressional chambers, Trump’s administration is likely to experience fewer legislative roadblocks in implementing its agenda.
Economic issues dominated voter concerns, particularly inflation and job stability. Many Americans attributed rising costs to the Biden administration, and Trump’s focus on tackling inflation and restoring “economic stability” resonated with voters. Polling indicated that the economy was the most pressing concern for voters, who largely trusted Trump over Harris to address these issues.
Trump’s base remained strong in rural areas, with particular support from non-college-educated voters. His economic message attracted Hispanic and Black voters who felt the impact of inflation, helping him secure critical support across socioeconomic lines.
Trump’s campaign was characterised by dark, often polarizing rhetoric, framing the US as under threat from immigration and claiming his leadership as a protective force. Trump pledged to launch large-scale deportations and referred to migrants as “poisoning the blood of the country.” These statements fueled concerns among Democrats and independents about Trump’s intent to reshape the executive branch, focusing on loyalty within federal agencies.
Vice President Harris, running after Biden’s late withdrawal from the race, centered her campaign on defending democratic institutions, accusing Trump of seeking unchecked power. Although she gained substantial financial backing and support from figures such as former Trump officials critical of his leadership, her campaign failed to mobilise enough votes to secure victory. Elon Musk’s high-profile support for Trump, including a $100 million contribution to a pro-Trump PAC, helped counterbalance Harris’s financial advantage.
Trump’s return to the White House signals potential shifts in US domestic and foreign policy, particularly concerning trade, climate, and immigration. He has proposed tariffs that could escalate tensions with China and allies and has suggested tax cuts aimed at boosting corporations, albeit with potential implications for US debt. His victory could also mean intensified polarisation, as he continues to target immigration and plans significant changes within the federal government.
With his victory secured, Trump is set to take office on January 20, 2025, alongside Vice President-elect JD Vance. The return of Trump to the presidency, coupled with Republican control of the Senate, marks a pivotal moment in US politics that may further deepen national divisions. The impact of Trump’s policies, especially on immigration and trade, will likely shape the nation’s direction for years to come.
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