According to a new report by the NSSG, mounting tensions between Iran and Israel prompted the Jordanian government to issue a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) on Sunday, August 4, that asked airlines to carry additional reserve fuel. The NOTAM is effective until 0000 local time on Wednesday, August 7, and further similar action could follow.
Relatedly, the NSSG stated that Jordan’s ministry of foreign affairs requested that Jordanian citizens residing in Lebanon to depart the country as soon as possible due to recent regional developments. In response, national flag carrier, Royal Jordanian Airlines, announced that it would operate direct flights between Beirut and Amman on August 6 and 7 for any citizens wanting to return to Jordan. The ministry’s advisory was issued a day after the US, Canadian, and UK governments urged their citizens to leave Lebanon over concerns of retaliatory strikes from Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah against Israel. The US State Department raised its travel advisory for Lebanon from Level 3 to Level 4 (“Do Not Travel”) on Wednesday, July 31.
As the potential for more intense and broader kinetic conflict activities rises, there are fears of prolonged disruptions, including cancellations and delays, to air mobility operations. The regional conflict has already compelled several airlines to cancel flights to Israel and Lebanon, and more are likely to follow in the coming days.
Additionally, the potential for widening airspace closures to include Egypt has also risen. While the Egyptian civil aviation authority announced that all of its airports are operating normally, it has also noted that flights by national air carriers, including EgyptAir, to Jordan and Lebanon remain suspended until further notice.
Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah have promised a response to the assassinations by the Israelis of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr on July 30, in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut, and Hamas leader Isamail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. These events have provided the stimulus for inflaming existing tensions, raising the likelihood of possible responses that are outside the normal targeting array seen in this current conflict. Iran and its proxies, including Yemen-based Houthis, are likely labouring to implement responses that will shift the balance of power in the war and may have a sustained impact on the operational environment for air mobility. The collateral impact is likely to extend beyond the Middle East region.
As tensions continue to escalate, more foreign governments will likely update and issue travel advice for its respective citizens in the coming days, particularly as the threat of retaliatory strikes is likely to rise over the near term (<7 days).
Reports mention that more than 1,000 British military personnel, plus aircraft, warships, and support ships are on standby to help evacuate UK nationals from Lebanon.
For organisations with interests in the region, continue to monitor for escalation points that would trigger crisis response plans, including protocols for the safe evacuation of employees. Travel and security teams should also consider deferring travel for staff until further notice. Supply chain managers are advised review business continuity and resilience plans to ensure they are fit for purpose.
We can support organisations in the region with a relevant consulting, operations and information services to help reduce risks and enable operational continuity.
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