The Institute of Strategic Risk Management (ISRM) has released details of its latest Global Crisis Watch, number 290, taking place tomorrow, Friday, September 30. This week highlighted topics will include the Yemen Houthi rebel attack on a large oil tanker in the Red Sea, which threatens a ‘massive oil spill’, the ongoing situation between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah, which is still critical, Ukraine’s continuing incursion into Kursk in Russia, and the crisis in Haiti, which is escalating as the former President, Michel Martelly, is sanctioned. Register below to take part.
The Houthis have attacked a large oil Tanker, threatening a massive spill
The Greek-flagged oil tanker Sounion has been on fire in the Red Sea since August 23 following an attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have intensified their campaign against international shipping in response to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The tanker, carrying 150,000 tonnes of crude oil, is at risk of causing one of the largest environmental disasters in history if the situation escalates into an oil spill. The EU naval mission, Aspides, confirmed that the Sounion was attacked by the Houthis, who have claimed responsibility and released videos showing the fiery assault on the vessel. Despite efforts by the ship’s owners, Delta Tankers, to salvage the Sounion, Houthi threats have hampered rescue operations. The US Pentagon has expressed concern over the potential environmental catastrophe, noting that the tanker holds over one million barrels of oil, which could result in a spill four times the size of the infamous 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster. This incident marks a dangerous escalation in the Houthis’ tactics, as they had previously targeted and sunk two ships this year, but this is the first time they have set a vessel ablaze. The ongoing conflict and the Houthis’ attacks have severely disrupted global shipping routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, prompting international shipping groups to avoid these critical passages. The situation underscores the broader implications of the Houthis’ actions, not only threatening the safety of seafarers and the freedom of navigation but also posing a severe ecological threat to the region.
The situation between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah is still critical
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups to remain in the Middle East, reflecting heightened tensions in the region as Hamas rejects Israel’s new conditions in Gaza ceasefire talks, denying any imminent deal, while Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah announced that the group’s delayed response was due to significant military mobilization by Israel and the U.S., warning of further actions if necessary. Jordan and Egypt have echoed concerns of a regional war, with Jordan emphasizing that Israel’s relentless aggression in Gaza and failure to reach a ceasefire are heightening the risk of conflict expansion, while the UN’s Palestine relief agency, Unrwa, plans a polio vaccination campaign for over 600,000 children in Gaza, appealing for a humanitarian ceasefire. Meanwhile, Europe’s top diplomat Josep Borrell is expected to propose sanctions against far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, as British Airways suspends flights between London and Tel Aviv amid escalating hostilities, which have already resulted in over 40,000 Palestinian deaths and nearly 100,000 injuries since October 7, with Yemen’s Houthi rebels expressing support for Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel and renewing threats of their own in response to Israeli strikes on a Yemeni port. Hezbollah’s military actions escalated with the launch of hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel in retaliation for the killing of commander Fuad Shukr, prompting pre-emptive Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, leading to casualties on both sides and leaving the region on edge as both Hezbollah and Israel signal potential further escalations.
Ukraine continues its incursion into Kursk
After three weeks of fighting, Russia has been unable to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, marking the first occupation of Russian territory since World War II. This sluggish and low-key response reflects a combination of manpower shortages and strategic priorities. With most of its military resources committed to offensives in eastern Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region, the Kremlin appears reluctant to divert forces to expel Ukrainian troops from Kursk. Putin, whose focus remains on the complete capture of the illegally annexed Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, has downplayed the Kursk incursion, treating it as a lesser threat that does not warrant a significant redeployment of troops from his primary objective. Analysts suggest that Putin believes the collapse of the Ukrainian state will render any territorial gains by Kyiv irrelevant, thereby justifying his limited response to the Kursk situation. The Kremlin has opted to reinforce the region with a mix of regular army units, militia, and irregular forces, but the response has been insufficient to decisively counter the Ukrainian advance, which has managed to seize nearly 1,300 square kilometers of territory, including around 100 settlements. Ukrainian forces have disrupted Russian logistics by destroying bridges across the Seym River, creating challenges for Russian supply lines and making it difficult for Moscow to regain control of the region. Despite this, Putin has refrained from using conscripts in the conflict, wary of triggering domestic unrest similar to what occurred during last year’s unpopular mobilization of 300,000 reservists. Instead, Russia has relied on volunteers attracted by high wages, though this source of manpower has dwindled in recent months. The state-controlled media has downplayed the significance of the Kursk incursion, portraying it as further evidence of Ukraine’s aggression and a justification for the ongoing invasion. Meanwhile, Putin’s reluctance to escalate the conflict by calling up additional reservists or reallocating forces from the Donbas indicates a strategic calculation to maintain the offensive in eastern Ukraine as his top priority, even as Ukrainian forces in Kursk continue to pose a significant challenge.
The Haiti crisis escalates as the former President is sanctioned
Haiti’s humanitarian crisis has worsened significantly due to escalating gang violence, resulting in the displacement of nearly 600,000 people, tripling in the last year alone. The violence, particularly in Port-au-Prince and Artibonite, has led to the collapse of basic services, with only 24% of hospitals still operational and 1.5 million children out of school. Many displaced people have fled south, straining already insufficient social services like education, health, and sanitation. Additionally, forced deportations of Haitians from other countries in the region have increased, with nearly 100,000 people deported in the first seven months of the year. Despite the arrival of a multinational security mission in June to support the Haitian police, violent clashes between gangs and authorities persist, contributing to severe humanitarian consequences. Food insecurity affects about 50% of the population, with nearly 300,000 cases of malnutrition documented. The ongoing crisis is feared to spread to previously unaffected areas, further exacerbated by an active hurricane season forecasted to bring between four and seven major storms. In a related development, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Haiti’s former President Michel Martelly for alleged drug trafficking and his role in perpetuating the country’s instability, freezing his U.S. assets and barring Americans from dealing with him. Martelly is accused of facilitating drug trafficking, working with gangs, and laundering illicit proceeds, contributing to the control of 80% of Port-au-Prince by criminal groups, where residents face constant threats of violence.
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