Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness, has released its Global Weekly Review, focusing on goings on around the world, including in the SituIran/Gulf Cooperation Council area, United States/Iran/Sri Lanka as Iranian warship IRIS Dena sunk by US torpedo attack off Sri Lanka’s coast, United States/Iran/Israel, focusing on Israel expanding war with first direct strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure.
It also covers the United States/Norway as an explosion at US embassy in Oslo highlights spillover security risks, United States/Latin America where the “Shield of the Americas” states have been meeting to establish military coalition against the cartels, and finally Nepal, where Balendra Shah likely to see a landslide victory in Nepal’s general elections.
Below is a portion of the update focusing on the ongoing action in the Middle East.
Situational Update
On 07 March 2026, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologised for Iranian retaliatory attacks on regional countries across the Gulf and beyond, promising that they will no longer be targeted unless an attack originates from there. His comments came as United States (US) President Donald Trump promised to escalate the bombing of Iran. Despite Pezeshkian’s promise, just hours earlier, a wave of missiles and drones disrupted flights at Dubai International Airport, targeted a major Saudi oil facility, and sent people fleeing for cover multiple times in Bahrain. Additionally, attacks have been observed across the Gulf in the days since he made the promise. These include an Iranian drone strike on a water desalination plant in Bahrain, fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport, and a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones heading towards Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have also reported fresh Iranian strikes and interceptions.
Assessment and Impact Update
The disparity between Pezeshkian’s promise and Iran’s military actions points towards a rift in the country’s leadership. Analysts say that Pezeshkian is not in a position to dictate strategic affairs, which are instead decided by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The powerful sect subsequently warned neighbouring countries that Tehran would continue attacks if the US and Israel used their territory to strike Iran. This is despite the fact that the Gulf states have refused to allow the US to use their territory or airspace to launch offensive strikes against Iran. The mixed messages coming from Tehran’s leadership could be a reflection of the fact that the country’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed by a joint US-Israeli operation on 28 February 2026. With his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, named as the country’s new supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts, the country may gain a clearer direction moving forward. However, the Israeli military has threatened to kill any replacement for Khamenei, while Trump has said that the war may only end once Iran’s military and leaders have been wiped out. The selection of Mojtaba, who is considered to be even more radical than his father, demonstrates defiance from the Iranian regime and suggests that the conflict is not likely to end soon.
After issuing the apology, Pezeshkian published a post on X claiming that Iran had only “targeted US military bases, facilities, and installations in the region”. Evidence from the ground has otherwise corroborated that Iran has struck civilian infrastructure, economic assets, and residential areas across the Gulf states. The nations targeted have expressed frustration and believe they will continue to be targeted by Iranian attacks. Iran appears to be strategically hoping that by bringing the consequences of the conflict to the Gulf nations, the countries will increase pressure on Washington to conclude it. However, this also risks having the opposite effect by provoking them into offensive retaliation.
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