Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness has released briefings over the past couple of days, detailing the goings on across the Middle East region over the weekend, into March 23, including how Iran’s latest messaging on the Strait of Hormuz suggests Tehran is trying to regulate passage on political terms rather than restore normal navigation, and how the conflict is now being shaped not only by missile and UAV escalation, but also by increasingly conditional rules governing movement, trade and operations. See excerpts from the two briefings, plus the reports for download, below.
On Sunday March 22, Global Situational Awareness released a briefing detailing how the conflict is now centred not only on military escalation, but on control over access, movement and economic pressure across the wider region. Iran’s latest messaging on the Strait of Hormuz suggests Tehran is trying to regulate passage on political terms rather than restore normal navigation, while continued missile and UAV activity against Gulf states shows the conflict is still widening in operational scope and geographic reach.
At the same time, diplomacy is becoming more crowded: regional actors are pursuing containment, while external powers are increasingly focused on energy security, maritime access and freedom of navigation. The crisis is therefore becoming broader, more internationalised and more disruptive, even without a full shutdown of trade routes.
Operational impact
Aviation
• Commercial aviation remains operational but unreliable. British Airways has extended flight cuts across multiple Middle East destinations, KLM has cancelled Dubai flights through late March, and Emirates has had flights forced into U-turns, diversions and limited- schedule operations from Dubai.
Logistics G Supply Chain
• CMA CGM has introduced emergency fuel surcharges and shifted some container movements onto alternative land routes, while FedEx says fuel surcharges are helping offset higher operating costs. Honeywell has also warned that shipping disruption into the Middle East is delaying some revenue recognition, showing that the impact is now reaching industrial supply chains.
Maritime
• Lloyd’s List reports that Iran has established a paid approval-based transit mechanism for certain vessels, increasing compliance risk and fragmenting access.
• Saudi Arabia’s Mawani has expanded vessel-support services across eastern ports, including bunkering, water, food, medical supplies and crew changes, as operators rely more on alternative hubs.
Energy Markets
• Thailand has restarted mothballed coal- fired units to limit electricity costs.
• Egypt has moved to conserve power and energy supplies.
• IEA has warned the conflict could trigger one of the worst energy crises in decades and says at least 40 energy assets across nine Middle Eastern countries have been severely or very severely damaged.
Download the full report, here
Global Situational Awareness’s latest briefing notes how the conflict is now being shaped not only by missile and UAV escalation, but also by increasingly conditional rules governing movement, trade and operations. Iran’s latest position on the Strait of Hormuz points to a politically filtered transit environment rather than a return to normal commercial navigation, while maritime traffic through the strait remains severely depressed. Gulf states are also hardening their security and strategic posture after direct attacks, with interception activity over the UAE and Kuwait showing that the threat now extends into civilian areas. International responses are widening as Washington issues new caution notices, Asian states adjust fuel strategies, and energy consumers turn to conservation, fuel switching and broader contingency measures.
Operational impact
Aviation
• Commercial aviation remains operational but unreliable. British Airways has extended flight cuts across multiple Middle East destinations, KLM has cancelled Dubai flights through late March, and Emirates has had flights forced into U-turns, diversions and limited- schedule operations from Dubai.
Logistics G Supply Chain
• CMA CGM has introduced emergency fuel surcharges and shifted some container movements onto alternative land routes, while FedEx says fuel surcharges are helping offset higher operating costs. Honeywell has also warned that shipping disruption into the Middle East is delaying some revenue recognition, showing that the impact is now reaching industrial supply chains.
Maritime
• Lloyd’s List reports that Iran has established a paid approval-based transit mechanism for certain vessels, increasing compliance risk and fragmenting access.
• Saudi Arabia’s Mawani has expanded vessel-support services across eastern ports, including bunkering, water, food, medical supplies and crew changes, as operators rely more on alternative hubs.
Energy Markets
• Thailand has restarted mothballed coal- fired units to limit electricity costs.
• Egypt has moved to conserve power and energy supplies.
• IEA has warned the conflict could trigger one of the worst energy crises in decades and says at least 40 energy assets across nine Middle Eastern countries have been severely or very severely damaged.
Download that report below
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