Nadir Izrael, CTO and Co-Founder, Armis, has given his cyber predictions for 2024, which focus heavily around AI evolving, cyberwarfare and how we work.

AI-Powered Cybersecurity Attacks and the AI Arms Race 

2024 is poised to be the year of AI mainstream adoption and the impact that AI will have on our way of life will dwarf the impact that cloud had on our way of life ten years ago.   

AI is already being used in a wide variety of industries, and its use is only going to grow in the coming years. This is due to a number of factors, including the increasing availability of data, the decreasing cost of computing power, and the development of new AI algorithms.

One of the biggest cybersecurity concerns in 2024 will be the use of AI-powered cybersecurity attacks. AI can be used to develop new and more sophisticated malware, phishing attacks, and denial-of-service attacks.

It can also be used to automate the process of carrying out cyberattacks. This means that attackers will be able to launch more attacks with less effort and motivation to get there fast. This kind of technology lowers the bar on adoption as you don’t need a lot of know-how so the industry is really going to have to step up and get active about how to combat this risk. 

Security vendors however are not doing nearly enough and they are not taking things as seriously as they should. As a whole, vendors seem to be iterating on what we have now and adding functionality like chat bots or speed in delivery of processes and functionality but there is not enough understanding about how quickly this is going to evolving our attack surface particularly that we are about to hit a major milestone in advanced AI in cyberwarfare. 

Shift in the Use of AI and the Impact on the World of Work 

The use of AI in cybersecurity will have a profound impact on jobs. Some jobs will be replaced by AI, others will be transformed. It will affect us all over the next decade. 

AI will be able to automate many of the tasks that are currently performed by cybersecurity analysts. This will free up cybersecurity analysts to focus on more strategic tasks, such as developing new security strategies and responding to major security incidents.

However, AI will also create new jobs in cybersecurity. For example, there will be a need for people to develop, train, and maintain AI-powered cybersecurity solutions.

There will also be a need for people to analyse the data generated by AI-powered cybersecurity solutions and to identify new threats. We can’t possibly predict what it will look like but cyberwarfare and cybersecurity will take up more space in our daily lives than at any point in history. 

Things like defensive AI will also operate at a higher level. Think of a scenario like a modern day factory today compared to 10 or 15 years ago.

Machines now produce the car parts on a factory line and humans regulate and monitor the machines to ensure that everything is running efficiently. We will see AI used in the same way with human monitoring but speed to delivery improving automation and processing ten times faster than that of human ability.  

Fundamentals of the IT landscape set to change in 2024

Over the next year, the landscape of IT will change fundamentally, making the era of cloud computing adoption look small by comparison. 

Over the past few years, the world of IT and the wider world during COVID has changed and it has necessitated entirely new security paradigms. Today all of our data is stored in certain ways, structured for human consumption and accessibility.

In the future we don’t need it like that anymore. Data can be anywhere and stored however it is needed as AI will be able to make it accessible.

Think about the evolution of warehouses for supply chain requirements, things aren’t stored in the way that humans need – books, food, electronics etc all bunched together – robots just find the closest available spot for a box, and remember where it is, because it’s not meant for humans – it’s a smart warehouse that can handle itself.

This shift will cause huge challenges for cybersecurity, and will likely need entirely new tools and security paradigms that don’t even exist yet.

With data everywhere and no longer structured, and with AI itself being a part of the equation, security will have to change drastically and likely create new fields that didn’t exist prior. Initially this will be a challenge, but security will evolve as it does over time.

Cyberwarfare Sophistication

Cyberwarfare is already a sophisticated discipline, but it is only going to become more so in 2024. With the increasing availability and sophistication of cyberwarfare tools and techniques as well as nation-state sponsored cyberattacks which are often carried out by teams of highly skilled hackers who are able to exploit vulnerabilities in even the most well-protected systems, attacks are likely to be tailored to specific targets and exploit vulnerabilities that are not yet known to the public. 

Attackers will also use AI to automate their attacks and make them more difficult to detect. AI is already having a significant impact on cyberwarfare. For example, AI is being used to develop new cyberwarfare tools and techniques, to automate attacks, and to make attacks more difficult to detect.

In 2024, we can expect to see AI play an even greater role in cyberwarfare.

• AI-powered malware: AI is being used to develop new types of malware that are more difficult to detect and remove. For example, AI-powered malware can be used to create custom malware that is tailored to a specific target or to evade traditional detection methods.
• Automated attacks: AI is being used to automate cyberwarfare attacks, making them more efficient and effective. For example, AI can be used to automate the process of identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities in target systems.
• Targeted attacks: AI is being used to target cyberwarfare attacks more precisely, increasing the damage they can cause. For example, AI can be used to identify and target individuals within an organisation who have access to sensitive data or who play a key role in the organisation’s operations.
• Defense against cyberwarfare attacks: AI is also being used to develop new methods of defence against cyberwarfare attacks. For example, AI can be used to develop new intrusion detection systems that can identify and block malicious activity before it causes damage.

As AI continues to develop, it is likely to play an even greater role in cyberwarfare in the future.

Cyber Espionage Plots

In recent years, there have been a number of undercover exposes on cyber espionage plots. 

In 2022, Microsoft discovered a group of Chinese hackers targeting US defence contractors and government agencies. The group, known as Hafnium, was able to exploit a vulnerability in Microsoft Exchange Server to gain access to the targets’ systems.

In 2021, the US government accused Russia of carrying out a massive cyber espionage campaign against US government agencies and businesses. The campaign, known as SolarWinds, involved hacking into the software supply chain of a US company and inserting malware into its software updates. This malware was then installed on the systems of thousands of customers, including the US government.

In 2020, the US government accused China of hacking into the servers of the US Office of Personnel Management and stealing the data of millions of federal employees. This data included sensitive information such as Social Security numbers and background check results.

These exposes have shown that cyber espionage is a serious threat to businesses and governments around the world. In 2024, we can expect to see more cyber espionage plots being uncovered.

Why? Well, firstly, the value of the data that can be stolen through cyber espionage is increasing. As businesses and governments become more reliant on digital systems, the amount of sensitive data that is stored online is growing. This data can be used for a variety of purposes, including gaining a competitive advantage, influencing policy decisions, or blackmailing individuals.

Second, the tools and techniques that cyber espionage actors use are becoming more sophisticated and widely available. This makes it easier for even less skilled actors to carry out successful attacks and lastly, the number of cyber espionage actors is increasing. In addition to nation-state actors, there are now a growing number of criminal groups and other non-state actors that are engaged in cyber espionage.