Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness released its daily briefing for March 17, detailing how the conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel has entered a more disruptive phase, expanding beyond military exchanges into energy production, maritime routes and financial systems. Drone strikes on the UAE’s ADNOC Shah gas field and Iraq’s Majnoon oil field mark the first confirmed targeting of upstream oil and gas assets, while a tanker strike near Fujairah highlights growing risks to Gulf export corridors.
The Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained, with Gulf oil exports falling by approximately 60% and only limited non-Iranian shipping transiting the corridor. Energy markets remain volatile around $100 per barrel, with analysts warning prices could rise toward $200 if disruption persists. Cybercrime linked to the conflict has surged by over 200%, alongside intensifying disinformation campaigns shaping the regional security environment.
Operational Impact
Aviation
- Oman Air introduced fuel and war-risk surcharges across its cargo network as jet fuel prices surge and insurance costs rise.
- Jet fuel prices have risen over 58% week-on-week, increasing operating costs across global aviation markets.
- A drone strike hit a fuel tank near Dubai International Airport (DXB), forcing a temporary suspension of operations.
Logistics G Supply Chain
- Suez Canal revenues have declined by approximately $10bn, highlighting sustained disruption to global trade routes and Red Sea shipping flows.
- Oman is establishing emergency food depots to stabilise supply chains and mitigate maritime disruption across the Gulf.
- Iraq–Türkiye Development Road gains traction as alternative trade corridor.
Maritime
- Suez Canal revenues have declined by approximately $10bn, highlighting sustained disruption to global trade routes and Red Sea shipping flows.
- Only five non-Iranian tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz, indicating effective Iranian control over commercial shipping access.
Energy markets
- The IEA signalled readiness to expand strategic reserve releases beyond 400 million barrels to stabilise markets.
- Japan is exploring increased imports of Russian crude, while Canada has pledged output increases, reflecting global efforts to offset Gulf supply disruption.
- Hormuz transit limited; Iran selectively controls shipping access.
Download the full briefing, below
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