Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness released its PM MENA Briefing for March 30, noting how the conflict had entered into a more unstable but not yet decisive phase, with diplomacy widening on paper while military and economic pressure continue to deepen in practice.
Pakistan says it will host direct US–Iran talks in coming days, yet Tehran has rejected the US 15-point proposal and insists on sovereignty, damages and non-attack guarantees. At the same time, Trump has publicly threatened to hit power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island if no deal is reached, while Iran continues to control access through Hormuz and keep global energy markets under strain. Regional governments are now shifting from crisis response toward financial shielding, travel controls, fuel conservation, operational restrictions, and contingency planning for prolonged disruption across aviation, shipping, banking, labour mobility and industrial production.
Operational impact
Aviation
• Alaska Air has warned fuel costs will deepen quarterly losses, reinforcing how the conflict is now pressuring airline earnings far beyond the Gulf.
• United and Delta appear better positioned than weaker US carriers, but Reuters says a prolonged fuel shock could trigger wider airline consolidation and capacity cuts.
Logistics G Supply Chain
• Rerouting around Africa is adding 10 to 14 days on some services and has brought new surcharges of roughly $1,500 to $4,000 per container.
• Global air cargo rates remain elevated as blocked sea routes, reduced flight options and higher jet fuel prices keep shippers under pressure.
Maritime
• Tanger Med in Morocco is preparing for heavier rerouted traffic as Maersk, Hapag- Lloyd and CMA CGM divert more cargo around Africa.
• Hormuz remains commercially constrained, with only nine cargo transits per day and 212 mainstream tankers still trapped west of the strait.
Energy Markets
• Europe’s LNG risk is rising because gas storage is already unusually low, leaving buyers exposed to a costly refill race as Hormuz disruption tightens global supply and intensifies competition for cargoes.
• Golden Pass LNG in Texas has reached first production, giving QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil a timely non-Gulf supply as energy security concerns deepen.
Download the full report below
On the afternoon of Friday, March 27, Global Situational Awareness’s PM briefing focused on port strikes, the Hormuz security push and a harder regional operating picture. It detailed how the regional picture had worsened, with Gulf port attacks, tighter air-defence activity and a harder maritime security debate pushing the crisis back toward escalation risk. Kuwait said Iranian drone attacks hit two ports, while Saudi air defences intercepted 17 drones in the Eastern Region, reinforcing the continued vulnerability of Gulf infrastructure.
At the same time, the UAE was backing a multinational force to help reopen Hormuz, showing that Gulf states are moving from contingency management toward more active security planning. Commercially, companies are adapting to a longer disruption cycle: TotalEnergies has evacuated around 1,300 people from several Middle East countries, Asian fuel-security measures are expanding, and export flows are being reshaped around Red Sea workarounds rather than any real return to normality.
Download that briefing, below
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