The conflict has entered a more unstable and more layered phase, says Global Situational Awareness in its AM briefing for April 1, with diplomatic activity widening even as military, economic, aviation and corporate-security pressure intensify.
Trump said US attacks could end within two to three weeks without any deal requirement, reinforcing uncertainty over what happens next in Hormuz. At the same time, the IRGC has issued a time-bound threat against named US-linked companies across Gulf commercial hubs. Iraq has been pulled deeper into the crisis through the kidnapping of an American journalist in Baghdad, while Saudi Arabia remains central to deterrence and Hormuz planning. Kuwait also faces renewed pressure after an attack affecting airport-related fuel infrastructure. The wider shock is spreading across regional logistics and confidence.
Operational impact
Aviation
• Pakistan’s fuel-supply warning is now directly affecting airline planning, with carriers advised to tanker fuel and reduce local uplift.
• Lufthansa is considering crisis plans that include grounding aircraft as the fuel shock deepens. Reuters has also reported wider airline fare, capacity and fuel-cost pressure across the sector.
Logistics G Supply Chain
• Iraq has started trucking oil through Al- Waleed into Syria toward Baniyas, showing how states are testing overland and non- Hormuz alternatives.
• Cargo for Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi is being cleared via Fujairah and Khor Fakkan.
• Sadara Chemical, the Aramco–Dow joint venture, halted production as supply chain disruption deepened.
Maritime
• Around 3,200 vessels remain stranded in the Gulf as Hormuz stays restricted.
• Hormuz traffic fell by about 97% in March as commercial crossings collapsed.
• War-risk premiums have surged to 5–10% of hull value per transit.
• Folk Maritime is shifting its India-Gulf service towards Red Sea ports as Hormuz disruption bites.
Energy Markets
• EU officials are urging energy-saving behaviour, including working from home and driving less, as they prepare for a longer shock.
• Jet fuel and diesel remain among the most exposed products, while airlines and airports in Europe and Asia face growing April supply risk.
Download the full report below
Yesterday morning, March 31, Global Situational Awareness detailed how the Gulf disruption was widening as maritime risk, air alerts and diplomatic friction deepened.
It said that regional pressure had intensified overnight (30/03) as missile threats, maritime disruption and economic strain widened across the Gulf and Levant. In the UAE, authorities handled a drone strike on Thuraya’s administrative building in Sharjah and a separate attack on the Kuwaiti tanker Al-Salmi in Dubai waters, showing both infrastructure and anchored shipping remain exposed.
Kuwait activated air defences against missile and drone threats, while Saudi Arabia stayed central to both deterrence and diplomacy. Israel added further political volatility after parliament passed a controversial death- penalty law targeting Palestinians. Egypt also sharpened the economic warning, with President Sisi urging Trump to stop the war, even as Washington signalled it could end operations without fully reopening Hormuz.
Download that report, below
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