Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness has reported how the Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has issued an advisory indicating that shipments destined for the Arabian Gulf may be declared “end of voyage” before reaching their originally scheduled porThe advisory reflects rising operational risk linked to instability around two major maritime chokepoints – The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and The Strait of Hormuz.

Under this mechanism, cargo may be discharged at alternative ports outside the Gulf, transferring responsibility for final delivery to cargo owners or freight forwarders.
If adopted by other carriers, this approach could shift container flows toward a distributed logistics system built around regional transshipment hubs and land corridors.

What the MSC Advisory Implies

The wording used in the advisory carries important operational implications for shippers.

Operational implications include:

• Containers may be discharged at ports outside the Gulf region rather than at the originally scheduled destination.
• Cargo owners may be required to arrange onward transport to the final market.
• Secondary logistics may include feeder vessels, trucking routes, or multimodal corridors.
• Storage, handling, and redistribution costs may shift to cargo owners.

For shippers, this means:

• Higher logistics costs.
• Delivery schedule uncertainty.

• Potential inventory disruptions for just-in-time supply chains.
• Greater reliance on regional distribution hubs rather than direct port delivery.

Drivers of the Disruption

The advisory reflects pressure created by two overlapping security dynamics.

Southern Red Sea

• Houthi forces in Yemen have demonstrated the capability to strike commercial vessels near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
• Missile, drone, and maritime attack tactics have been used against ships operating along the corridor linking the Indian Ocean with the Red Sea.
• While attacks have concentrated in the southern Red Sea, risk perception now affects the entire route toward the Suez Canal.

Persian/Arabian Gulf

• Rising tensions involving Iran have increased concern over maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Approximately 20 per cent of the global oil supply transits the corridor each day.
• Shipping companies must evaluate both transit safety and the viability of Gulf destination ports.

Redistribution Ports Emerging Around the Gulf

If containers are discharged outside the Gulf, several regional ports could absorb redirected cargo flows.

Oman

• Port of Salalah

Major transshipment hub on the Asia–Europe route
Located outside the Strait of Hormuz

• Port of Duqm

Expanding industrial and logistics hub
Increasing energy and heavy cargo capacity

Oman was struck twice by Iranian drones earlier in the current escalation. Tehran later apologised and described Oman as a friendly state.

Despite these incidents, Oman remains significantly safer than operating inside the Gulf.

South Asia

• Port of Colombo

Major Indian Ocean transshipment hub
Extensive feeder connections across the Middle East

• Jawaharlal Nehru Port

India’s largest container gateway
Capable of absorbing diverted cargo flows

Pakistan

• Port of Karachi

Pakistan’s primary container gateway
Positioned along western Arabian Sea shipping routes

• Port of Gwadar

Developed under the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor
Strategic relevance for Chinese energy and trade routes

Eastern Mediterranean

• Port Said

Located at the northern entrance to the Suez Canal
Possible redistribution point for Red Sea traffic
These ports collectively form a logistics arc surrounding the Gulf and Red Sea.

Insurance as the Real Operational Driver

Shipping decisions are often influenced more by insurance markets than by direct military threats. Key dynamics include:

• Ships entering high-risk zones require specialised war-risk coverage.
• Premiums rise rapidly following attacks on commercial vessels.

• Insurers may refuse coverage in extreme scenarios.
• Without insurance, vessels cannot enter contested waters.

Insurance markets therefore translate geopolitical instability into financial signals that shape shipping behaviour.

Outlook

MSC’s advisory highlights the growing integration of geopolitical risk into global supply chain planning.

If instability persists across the Red Sea and Persian/Arabian Gulf:

• Shipping companies may increasingly rely on ports outside the Gulf for cargo discharge.
• Regional hubs across Oman, Pakistan, India, and Sri Lanka could absorb redistributed cargo flows.
• Hybrid sea–land corridors may become more common.

The result may be a temporary but significant shift toward a multi-node logistics system surrounding the Gulf, reducing dependence on a small number of vulnerable maritime chokepoints.

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