In this week’s GCC Weekly Intelligence update, to August 13, Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness, details how the regional picture has deteriorated since the previous assessment. Optimism around a near-term Hormuz settlement has weakened, with Iran saying there has been no progress towards reviving the interim US-Iran arrangement and no discussions on extending the previous ceasefire framework.
Pakistan and other mediators continue to indicate that some form of agreement may remain possible, but Tehran and Washington are still publicly divided over implementation, sanctions, frozen assets, the US blockade and reopening the Strait. President Donald Trump says the US has “total control” of Hormuz, but commercial traffic remains at a small fraction of pre-war levels.
This should not be interpreted as operational normalisation. Military enforcement is also increasingly part of the maritime environment. US forces disabled a Panama-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman after it attempted to proceed towards an Iranian port despite the US blockade. This reinforces that commercial shipping now faces risk from competing Iranian and US enforcement regimes around Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman.
For shipping companies and insurers, political claims of control are less important than whether vessels can transit predictably without attack, interception, detention or forced diversion. The Red Sea has deteriorated more sharply. A Houthi attack on the commercial vessel Tihamah in Bab el-Mandeb killed crew members and Yemeni rescuers and injured others.
The fatalities confirm that renewed Houthi operations are no longer only disrupting shipping but again producing direct loss of life. The IMO has reinforced its call for protection of seafarers and thorough voyage-risk assessment before transit. Commercial traffic through Bab el-Mandeb remains below earlier levels, while Saudi crude movements from Yanbu are increasingly operating with reduced AIS visibility or being redirected northwards because of the Houthi threat.
Saudi Arabia consequently remains the principal GCC deterioration point. The threat now combines Houthi attacks against Saudi-linked shipping, the recent attack against the Jizan refinery, pressure around Red Sea export routes and continuing concern over potential Iraq-linked attacks. The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Türkiye and Pakistan adds an important longer-term deterrence framework, and Ankara has indicated that its vision could extend beyond the three founding states. However, the agreement has not yet changed the immediate operational threat environment.
Planning assumption
Plan for active containment with sustained two-chokepoint maritime disruption, stalled US-Iran diplomacy and elevated Saudi Red Sea exposure. Movement remains possible across most of the GCC, but posture should stay elevated until Hormuz traffic recovers materially, US and Iranian maritime enforcement eases, Bab el-Mandeb attacks stop, Saudi energy and shipping targets record a sustained attack-free period, Iraq prevents further cross-border launches and Kuwait records no follow-on terrorism or infrastructure incidents.
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