Alongside its GCC Weekly briefing to September 28, Global Situational Awareness has released a special report examining Iran’s proxy & partner network across the Middle East.
In this special report, Global Situational Awareness details how Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has been significantly degraded but remains partially functional amid the ongoing conflict with Israel and the United States, during which Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed and succeeded by his son Mojtaba Khamenei. Hezbollah in Lebanon, once Iran’s flagship proxy, has been badly weakened by the 2026 Lebanon war and a June ceasefire, and has not relinquished its weapons.
In Iraq, the Popular Mobilisation Forces network is fracturing, with some factions (Asaib Ahl al Haq, Kataib Imam Ali) signaling openness to disarmament while hardline elements (Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba) refuse.
Tehran has responded by leaning more heavily on the Yemen based Houthis, who in September 2026 seized Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the Bab al Mandeb islands, gaining the ability to threaten one of the world’s key shipping chokepoints, and on Iraqi militias, with reported direct Houthi Iraqi coordination against Saudi Arabia in mid 2026. Hamas retains nominal Iranian backing in Gaza but is diplomatically and militarily depleted. Iran’s supply corridor to Hezbollah through Syria was severed by the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 and has not been reliably restored.
Download the full report, here
In its weekly briefing, Global Situational Awareness notes how regional risk remains SEVERE, driven by the Saudi–Houthi front and a hardening US–Iran stand-off. Houthi missiles and drones aimed at Khamis Mushait and Riyadh were intercepted on 26 Sept, a day after Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani military chiefs met in Riyadh under their defence pact. No vessel strike has been confirmed since Cape Dao (23 Sept); Iran’s claim to have “hit” 19 ships and a reported clash near Sirik are unverified.
Trump has rejected Iran’s seven-day Hormuz plan and is reported to expect renewed strikes after the 3 Nov midterms; Tehran says it “will not back down” and awaits a formal reply as its 28–30 Sept deadline arrives. Rating changes this edition: UAE and Qatar to Moderate/High, Kuwait to High, Oman to Moderate.
Saudi Arabia: air defences intercepted two ballistic missiles aimed at Khamis Mushait and two drones aimed at Riyadh early on 26 Sept; no damage. Riyadh schools that went online on 27 Sept are due back in person on 28 Sept, per a school notice citing a Ministry directive. Eight confirmed Houthi attacks on Saudi territory in September.
Yemen (Houthi-reported): a Saudi airstrike on a Taiz market on 27 Sept killed 7 and wounded about 40 (Al-Masirah via AFP); Saree says Al-Jawf was also hit. No coalition comment; Houthi retaliation likely.
Yemen (government): President al-Alimi called on citizens to join the armed forces and offered amnesty to Houthi defectors (26 Sept).
Defence pact: chiefs met in Riyadh on 25 Sept and named Lt Gen (retd) Nauman Mahmood secretary-general; on 26 Sept Khalid bin Salman and Field Marshal Asim Munir pledged joint action. No deployment; Turkey has yet to ratify.
Maritime: no UKMTO warning since 142-26 (Cape Dao). Iran’s claim to have hit 19 ships is unverified. Trump says US forces escorted 20m+ barrels out of Hormuz over the weekend (US official; not independently tracked).
US–Iran: Trump rejected Araghchi’s plan but expects more talks this week, not on Iran’s terms. UN envoy Waltz says Trump doubts Iran’s good faith and that 146 states have condemned its shipping attacks. On strikes, Trump said: “I am always thinking about it” (Axios).
Sanctions and aviation: the UAE has halted Iranian airline flights and UAE and Turkish banks have cut Iran transactions; Turkey and Oman have halted Mahan Air. UK measures start 29 Sept.
Watch item: Iran’s 28–30 Sept deadline and any formal US reply; Houthi retaliation for Taiz; UKMTO warning 143-26; Monday’s oil open; Marib/Mocha fighting.
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