In its latest situational overview, covering the Middle East and North Africa, Global Situational Awareness details how the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran continues to intensify as sustained air strikes and retaliatory attacks expand across the region.

US forces have struck more than 3,000 targets inside Iran, while Israeli operations have conducted roughly 3,400 strikes against Iranian military infrastructure and command facilities. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks targeting US positions, Israel and civilian infrastructure across Gulf states, including facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE. Meanwhile, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to minimal levels, leaving hundreds of vessels waiting outside the Gulf as energy markets react to fears of prolonged export disruption.

Operational Impact

Aviation

• Multiple Gulf airports are operating on restricted schedules following missile and drone interceptions near major aviation hubs, forcing airlines to delay or reschedule departures
• Passengers across the region are experiencing significant delays as aircraft avoid conflict zones and utilise longer routing corridors.

Maritime

• Commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply, leaving hundreds of vessels waiting at anchorage areas outside the Gulf.
• Several Gulf producers are facing storage constraints as tanker availability declines and exports slow.

Logistics G Supply Chain

• Cargo backlogs are emerging across regional supply chains as air cargo capacity declines and shipping companies delay Gulf port calls.
• Freight forwarders are redirecting shipments to alternative ports outside the Gulf, requiring additional inland transport and increasing delivery times.

Energy Markets

• Global energy markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the Gulf, with traders closely monitoring maritime transit conditions.
• Some producers have begun adjusting production levels due to storage limitations and export delays.

Outlook (next 72 to 96 hours)

Military operations are expected to continue. US and Israeli air strikes against Iranian military infrastructure are likely to persist, while Iran is expected to continue missile and drone retaliation against US-linked targets and Gulf infrastructure.

Maritime disruption is likely to continue. Commercial shipping movements through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to remain limited until naval escort arrangements or improved security conditions emerge.

Energy markets will remain volatile. Oil and LNG prices are likely to fluctuate as traders assess the risk of prolonged disruption to Gulf exports.

Aviation restrictions are likely to persist. Regional airspace closures and rerouted flight corridors will continue affecting passenger and cargo movements across Middle East aviation networks.

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