Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness has released The MENA Weekly, a weekly situational update covering the ongoing situation in the Middle East, including Iran, where fuel tanker attacks continue to undermine global energy supply, and US intelligence suggests that Iranian regime is unlikely to collapse. Israel has accused Iran of using cluster munitions.
In Israel/Lebanon IDF strikes in Lebanon continue amid widening regional conflict, in the Gulf Cooperation Council the Gulf is concerned over missile interceptor shortages. Morocco and UAE are deepening their strategic partnership on desalination, Tunisia is proposing new border security agreements with its neighbours Algeria and Libya, and Morocco reiterates commitment to nuclear cooperation. Below is an excerpt of the update, with the full update available at the bottom of the page.
Situation Update
On 12 March 2026, reports emerged revealing that explosive-laden unmanned Iranian surface vessels had attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters, setting them ablaze and killing one crew member, after projectiles struck four vessels in Gulf waters. The ships targeted near Iraq were the Marshall Islands-flagged Safesea Vishnu and the Zefyros, which had loaded fuel cargoes in Iraq. A port security official confirmed that 25 crew members from the two vessels were rescued and that the body of a foreign crew member had been recovered from the water as Iraqi rescue teams continued to search for missing seafarers.
The attacks came as Iran has blocked oil shipments from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas transits. The price of oil has surged past US$100 per barrel, resulting in the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreeing to release 400 million barrels from its members’ strategic reserves. The stockpile release is more than double the last record. Despite the body being established to deal with crises like this, the move has failed to bring down oil prices, with Brent crude still around 25% higher than before the attacks after the announcement was made. Iranian military command Spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaqari has warned the world to “get ready for oil to be US$200 a barrel”.
Assessment/Impact/Business Implications
The persistent attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman have significantly eroded confidence in maritime security. Although the United States (US) military has eliminated 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, such operations have not been able to reopen the waterway. It remains unclear whether the US, Israel, and their allies will be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipments of oil and bring down the prices of oil and gas. US President Donald Trump has stated that tanker crews should “show some guts” by transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
On 09 March 2026, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France and its allies were preparing a “purely defensive” mission to escort vessels through the maritime chokepoint. However, it is believed that they are waiting for the most intense phase of the war to finish first. With the US Navy continuing to refuse requests from the shipping industry for military escorts through the Strait due to the severe risk of attacks, it is difficult to identify if and when escorts will become possible. Collectively, this evidence suggests that maritime security threats and persistently high energy costs will remain problematic in the coming weeks.
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