In its MENA Weekly briefing for the week ending March 10, geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness focuses on the announcement by Trump of a two-week ceasefire with Iran, on the second crew member of an F-15 rescued by American forces, Netanyhu’s assertion that the ceasefire will not include Lebanon, and Al-Sharaa saying that Syria will stay out of the conflict. It will give situational updates, offer assessments for each issue and more. An extract is below with the full briefing available for download.
On 07 April 2026, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, bringing a pause to their 39-day war. His statement came just one and a half hours before the 2000hrs EST deadline he had previously set for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said that if the attacks stopped, Iran would end its strikes and allow safe transit through the waterway for two weeks. Trump has previously declared that “a whole civilisation will die” if a deal was not agreed. He had also threatened to blow up power plants, bridges, and other civilian infrastructure, actions that many legal experts said would amount to a war crime. Washington has received a 10-point plan for the conditional ceasefire from Iran, which he described as a “workable basis on which to negotiate”. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is believed to have played a role in facilitating diplomacy between the two sides by acting as an intermediary. Negotiations to end the war are set to take place in Islamabad on 10 April 2026.
Assessment/Impact/Business Implications
It would be premature to assume that the conflict is winding down as it remains unclear whether the negotiations will succeed. There has been a long history of diplomatic failures between the US and Iran. Trump’s optimism, demonstrated by his claim that “almost all of the various points of past disagreements have been resolved”, provides some cause for cautious optimism. However, the situation could deteriorate at short notice and Trump’s mixed messaging throughout the conflict casts doubt on the reliability of such assertions.
The ceasefire will be welcome among US allies in the Middle East who had been bracing for a heavy attack on Iran and the possibility of counterattacks. While there have been reports of some leaders privately urging Washington to go further and topple the regime, the severe economic ramifications of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing oil and gas exports, have weighed heavily on the region. Due to extensive infrastructure damage, even if the war concluded with a long-term peace agreement, it could take years to fully repair what has been targeted and return to normal energy flows.
Iran — Second crew member from F-15 downed in Iran rescued by US forces — SEVERE
On 03 April 2026, a United States (US) F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jet was shot down over south-western Iran. It was the first time a US fighter jet had been shot down by an enemy force in over 20 years. The pilot and a second crew member subsequently ejected, prompting a manhunt between the US and Iran to get to the two servicemen first. The fighter pilot was recovered on the same day as a result of a rescue operation involving two Black Hawk helicopters and an A-10 Warthog attack aircraft. Demonstrating the scale of the resistance encountered, the A-10 Warthog, after being hit by Iranian fire, was also downed, leading the pilot to eject over the Persian Gulf. The two helicopters were also hit but managed to escape Iranian airspace.
With the other airman stranded 200 miles behind enemy lines, the second extraction operation was far greater in scale. Iran offered a bounty of US$50,000 to anyone who found him alive and videos shared online showed armed civilians searching. To extract the airman, who was found in Iran’s mountains, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) launched a targeted deception campaign to mislead Iran, while Israel offered intelligence support and conducted strikes designed to act as a diversion. Roughly 100 US commandos were deployed under the cover of darkness, establishing a forward operating position and pulling the stranded weapons specialist to a rendezvous point. After the two C-130 transport aircraft that transported them suffered mechanical failures and were unable to take off, additional aircraft were ordered. The stranded planes were subsequently destroyed to prevent them from falling into enemy hands.
Assessment/Impact/Business Implications
The successful rescue operations denied Iran a massive propaganda victory, as well as leverage in negotiations. Although the conflict has killed 13 US service members and wounded more than 300, no US troops have been taken prisoner. The fact that the second crew member survived for over 36 hours is a testament to the effectiveness of US Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape (SERE) training. The scale of the operation, which was one of the largest search and rescue missions in military history, is also illustrative of the effectiveness of various US and Israeli agencies working together. While the loss of military assets is undesirable given the cost of producing such equipment, the successful extraction was a significant victory.
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