Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness has released a special report – A Third Gulf War, focusing on the conflict across the Middle East, which replaces the usual MENA Weekly report. Below is an excerpt, with the full report available for download.
United Arab Emirates – SEVERE
Situation Update
Since 28 February 2026, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has transitioned from a high-readiness posture into sustained crisis management as Iranian missile and drone attacks expanded into Gulf airspace, maritime corridors, and energy infrastructure. In the opening phase, the UAE intercepted incoming threats targeting civilian and strategic locations. Since then, multiple incidents have affected critical assets, including disruptions at Fujairah port, temporary suspension of operations at the Shah gas field, and pressure on refining and export infrastructure.
Aviation has remained operational but under sustained stress. Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports continue to function, fuel costs. The UAE has maintained continuity through rapid defensive responses and coordinated crisis management protocols. Maritime disruption has intensified, with vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz significantly constrained. The UAE has supported regional coordination efforts, including proposals to facilitate the movement of stranded seafarers and stabilise shipping flows. More recent developments indicate continued exposure to regional energy strikes, including debris-related impacts within UAE territory, demonstrating the persistence of risk.
Assessment
Although the UAE remains one of the most resilient operating environments in the region, it is now fully exposed to direct and indirect risks associated with the conflict. Key concerns include further disruption to export infrastructure, sustained pressure on energy assets, intermittent aviation constraints and rising insurance and freight costs. While the UAE continues to function as a regional stabiliser, the repeated targeting of infrastructure could erode operational efficiency and investor confidence if escalation persists.
Saudi Arabia — SEVERE
Situation Update
As with the other Gulf states, Saudi Arabia’s neutral stance in the conflict has failed to prevent it from being targeted by Iranian strikes. At the time of writing, Saudi Arabia has intercepted at least 438 hostile drones and 36 ballistic and cruise missiles since Iran began retaliatory attacks. Despite the country’s defence network, which includes Patriot and THAAD systems, maintaining an interception rate of over 90%, a number of key targets have still been successfully hit. On 02 March 2026, a drone strike caused a fire at Ras Tanura Refinery, the largest in the country, resulting in a temporary halt in operations. One day later, the US Embassy in Riyadh was struck by two drones, causing a fire and some damage to the building. Additionally, on 19 March 2026, an Iranian drone struck the Saudi Aramco-ExxonMobil joint venture refinery in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. While the interception rate has been impressive, damage caused by falling debris has been problematic across the Gulf. On 18 March 2026, four people were injured by debris from an intercepted ballistic missile in Riyadh.
Assessment
Rhetoric from Saudi leaders suggests that the country is losing patience with Iran. On 19 March 2026, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud stated that Riyadh “reserve(d) the right to take military actions if deemed necessary”. He also asserted that “there will be almost nothing that can re-establish trust” if Iran failed to stop its attacks. With little reason to believe that Iran will suddenly stop targeting countries across the Gulf, Riyadh risks appearing to be a paper tiger if it fails to take more robust action when targeted in the future. Reports have suggested that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has encouraged US President Donald Trump to keep escalating the US’s efforts against Iran
Download the report below
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