Over the weekend, starting March 13, geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness, has posted several updates detailing the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, including Regional Escalation intensifying as Hormuz Disruption deepened, Gulf conflict escalating as the energy infrastructure risks grew, and the Gulf conflict escalation intensifying security and economic disruption.
On Saturday, Global Situational Awareness reported how the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran was continuing to widen across the Gulf and Levant, increasing pressure on regional security, energy exports and global trade routes. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about 20% of global oil and LNG flows, had sharply reduced tanker traffic and forced production cuts across the region. Overnight escalation included a major US airstrike targeting military facilities on Iran’s Kharg Island export hub, which handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports.
US President Donald Trump warned that interference with shipping could trigger strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, as Iranian missiles damaged US aircraft in Saudi Arabia while Qatar intercepted incoming missiles over Doha. Analysts warn prolonged disruption around Hormuz could trigger wider global energy market instability.
By Saturday afternoon, regional tensions had intensified after U.S. strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub, prompting Iranian warnings that U.S.-linked facilities across the Gulf could become targets. Air defence activity remained elevated, with the UAE intercepting nine ballistic missiles and thirty-three drones overnight, part of more than 2,500 drones launched since the conflict began. The United States has deployed about 10,000 AI-guided Merops interceptor drones to counter high-volume UAV attacks and reduce reliance on expensive Patriot and THAAD systems. Energy infrastructure risks also increased after another incident affecting oil loading operations in Fujairah, a major bunkering hub outside Hormuz.
Diplomatically, divisions persist after Russia and China abstained from a Bahrain- led UN resolution condemning Iran’s attacks.
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On Sunday afternoon, Global Situational Awareness reported that regional tensions continued to intensify across the Gulf as missile and drone incidents affected both security conditions and economic systems. Iran claimed it targeted US forces at Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates on 15 March using missiles and drones, while Saudi Arabia reported intercepting ten drones near Riyadh and in the eastern region. Aviation disruption is widening, with FlyDubai suspending all Tel Aviv flights until 30 April, ending one of the last remaining Gulf commercial links to Israel during the conflict. Maritime risks remain elevated as shipping companies avoid the Strait of Hormuz and recent drone incidents affect port infrastructure, including Fujairah and Salalah. Economic effects are also spreading as tourism declines across the Gulf and logistics operators increasingly rely on cross-border trucking networks to maintain cargo flows.
Country key developments
Iran
• Iran claims missile and drone strike targeting US forces at Al Dhafra.
Israel
• Israeli strikes continue targeting Iranian military infrastructure and Hezbollah-linked positions.
United Arab Emirates
• UAE officials warn Iran; security heightened around bases, ports and infrastructure.
Saudi Arabia
• Saudi air defences intercept ten drones near Riyadh and eastern region.
Kuwait
• Exit permit rules complicate expatriate departures as security concerns rise.
Qatar
• Authorities say security conditions remain stable despite regional escalation.
Oman
• Ports remain on heightened alert following drone incidents affecting Salalah.
Iraq
• US advises citizens to leave as militia threats persist.
Lebanon
• Israeli airstrikes continue in southern Lebanon as Hezbollah launches rockets toward Israel.
Turkey
• Turkey increases regional monitoring as conflict raises risks near Syrian border.
Yemen
• Houthis reinforce Red Sea positions while warning attacks on Israel-linked shipping may resume.
Egypt
• Egypt monitors escalation and potential disruption risks to Suez Canal shipping routes.
Syria
• Israeli strikes target Iranian logistics networks and weapons.
Download the Sunday briefing, below
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