In its latest update, for June 22, Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness, details how the US-Iran MoU is moving from launch diplomacy into contested implementation. The first Bürgenstock round has ended with technical talks expected to continue, Switzerland calling the work constructive, and Iran crediting Pakistan and Qatar for progress. A high-level committee has reportedly agreed a 60-day roadmap, while Washington says it has issued a 60-day general licence for Iranian oil production.
That has eased market pressure, with oil prices falling, but the operational picture remains uneven. The US says Hormuz remains open and oil flows are moving closer to pre-war levels, while maritime reporting indicates traffic has fallen sharply after renewed Iranian closure orders. Qatar is moving LNG tankers into Hormuz despite the slowdown, underscoring the split between political signalling and shipping behaviour. Lebanon remains the key de-confliction test, Syria-Lebanon messaging is becoming more important, and EU-Israel tensions add another diplomatic layer.
Outlook – 72-96 hours
The next 72–96 hours will show whether the US-Iran MoU can become a regional framework or remain a managed pause between rival centres of power. The Bürgenstock process has created a diplomatic channel, but the substance is now geopolitical: who controls Hormuz access, how sanctions relief is sequenced, whether Iranian oil re-enters markets, and whether Lebanon can be contained.
Iran is likely to use Hormuz, tolls and asset releases as leverage, while Washington will try to preserve Gulf freedom of navigation without appearing to concede strategic ground. Qatar, Pakistan, Türkiye, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are giving the process wider regional cover, but Israel’s position in Lebanon remains the main spoiler. EU-Israel tension adds another diplomatic fault line. Iraq and Libya output gains may ease market pressure, but only if maritime confidence improves. The most likely scenario is contested implementation: diplomacy continues, prices remain softer, but regional power competition, sanctions bargaining, Israeli-Hezbollah risk and maritime coercion remain embedded in the operating environment.
Advisory note
Organisations should treat the US-Iran MoU as a partial risk reduction, not a return to normal operating conditions. Business continuity teams should continue monitoring Hormuz, Lebanon, Yemen-linked waters and Gulf airspace, as political progress remains vulnerable to sanctions disputes, maritime coercion, insurance constraints and renewed military action. Energy, procurement and treasury teams should update assumptions for crude, LNG, refined products, petrochemicals, freight rates and fuel surcharges, while avoiding over-reliance on lower spot prices. Logistics and supply-chain teams should keep alternative routing, sea-air options and supplier buffers active until vessel traffic, safe-passage procedures and war-risk cover stabilise. Finance, legal and compliance teams should review Iranian counterparty exposure, asset-release language, payment channels, insurance clauses and force-majeure provisions. Corporate leadership should communicate cautious improvement: regional markets are responding positively to diplomacy, but operational normalisation remains uneven and dependent on Hormuz access, Lebanon de-confliction and sanctions implementation.
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