The Institute of Strategic Risk Management (ISRM) has announced this week’s Global Crisis Watch, taking place this Friday, March 14 at 10am GMT. Highlighted topics for the discussions will include, Ukraine facing increased battlefield risk, as US intelligence is paused, sectarian conflict and foreign influence threatening Syria’s stability, Trump’s persisting interest in Greenland, and the country’s upcoming elections, and Pakistan’s Balochistan province, which is in turmoil as militants seize train and hostages.

In addition to this weekly Global Crisis Watch, The ISRM is launching another, American Global Crisis Watch, also beginning this Friday, at 5pm GMT / 1pm EDT. This will explore the key developments coming out of and impacting on the United States, Canada, Mexico and Latin America.

The highlighted topics for the regular Global Crisis Watch in detail are below.

With US intelligence paused, Ukraine faces increased risks on the battlefield

The United States and Ukraine held critical talks in Saudi Arabia following Kyiv’s largest drone strike on Moscow. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hopes to mend strained relations with Washington, particularly after a tense meeting with US President Donald Trump. Zelenskyy proposed an air and sea truce to align with Trump’s push for a swift end to the war. The meeting, attended by key US and Ukrainian officials, comes amid growing European concerns about US military aid and intelligence support for Kyiv being paused.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s overnight drone attack on Moscow resulted in three deaths, fires and airport closures. The strike aimed to demonstrate Kyiv’s continued capability to retaliate against Russian assaults. On the battlefield, Ukraine is under increasing pressure, particularly in the Kursk region, where Russian forces are advancing.

The US has signaled that future military support may depend on Ukraine’s willingness to negotiate peace. Withholding intelligence is a major strategic setback for Ukraine, limiting its ability to detect Russian missile threats and effectively use long-range Western weaponry. Additionally, Kyiv’s diminishing Patriot missile supplies leave critical infrastructure vulnerable.

Diplomatic efforts remain uncertain. Trump’s administration is leveraging security assistance as a bargaining tool, while European allies insist that any negotiations must come from a position of strength. The US is pressuring Ukraine to make concessions, while Zelenskyy warns that yielding could reinforce Russian aggression beyond Ukraine.

Sectarian conflict and foreign influence threaten Syria’s stability

Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has launched an investigation into deadly clashes between security forces and fighters loyal to ousted President Bashar al-Assad. The violence erupted in Latakia and Tartous, with pro-Assad forces attacking security units, leading to communal killings. The conflict has left at least 1,000 dead, mostly civilians, according to war monitors. Reports indicate field executions and sectarian targeting, further destabilizing post-Assad Syria.

Sharaa has vowed accountability, forming an independent committee to investigate civilian deaths and security violations. The violence, particularly in Qardahah (Assad’s birthplace) and Banias (a key oil hub), highlights the challenges facing Syria’s new leadership. The UN and Western powers have condemned the killings, with calls for stability and respect for international law.

Regional actors, including Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon and Jordan, met in Amman to discuss Syria’s future, with concerns over security, refugees and sanctions. Sharaa blamed the violence on remnants of Assad’s forces and foreign actors, particularly Iran and Hezbollah, accused of exploiting sectarian tensions. Experts warn Syria’s deep-rooted divisions pose a lasting threat to stability.

Western reactions remain mixed – while the EU favors engagement with the interim government, the US remains skeptical. Meanwhile, Syrians displaced by the fighting remain hesitant to return, fearing further violence. Analysts argue that without genuine political inclusion and reconciliation, Syria risks continued instability.

Between Denmark and the US: Greenland’s election and the path to sovereignty

Greenland’s elections, typically a local affair, have gained international significance due to US President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring the Arctic island. His recent statement – “We’re going to get it one way or the other” – has heightened tensions, with Greenlandic politicians, including Prime Minister Mute Egede, firmly rejecting any suggestion of annexation.

While all major parties agree on eventual independence from Denmark, they differ on the timeline and strategy. The ruling Inuit Ataqatigiit party advocates gradual autonomy, while the opposition Naleraq party pushes for immediate separation and closer defense ties with the US. However, economic dependence on Denmark, which provides annual subsidies covering 20% of Greenland’s GDP, complicates the path to sovereignty.

Security concerns also play a role, as Denmark still controls Greenland’s defence policy. With increasing Russian and Chinese interest in the Arctic and Greenland’s vast mineral wealth – including rare earth metals – the US sees the territory as strategically critical. Trump has suggested heavy American investment in Greenland, but most Greenlanders oppose US control. A recent survey found that while 80% support eventual independence, nearly half worry about economic stability.

Beyond independence, the election is shaped by historical grievances against Denmark, including colonial-era abuses and economic exploitation. While independence is not on the ballot, this election could accelerate Greenland’s moves toward sovereignty, with analysts expecting results to influence negotiations with Copenhagen.

Pakistan’s Balochistan in turmoil as militants seize train and hostages

A separatist militant group, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), hijacked a train in Pakistan’s Balochistan province, taking hostages and engaging in combat with security forces. The Jaffar Express, carrying around 400 passengers, was attacked while passing through a tunnel. The BLA claimed to have taken 182 hostages, including military personnel, while Pakistani authorities only confirmed 35. Civilians were reportedly released.

The attack escalated into an armed standoff, with security forces launching a rescue operation involving helicopters and special forces. Explosions were reported near the tunnel, and the BLA threatened to execute hostages if military intervention continued. The group also claimed to have killed 20 soldiers, though Pakistani officials have not verified this.

Balochistan’s government imposed emergency measures, while Pakistan’s interior minister condemned the attack, promising not to make any concessions to the perpetrators.

The incident highlights the ongoing uprising in Balochistan, where separatist militants have been fighting the state for decades, citing economic exploitation and political marginalization. The BLA has intensified its attacks in recent years, targeting military personnel, infrastructure and Chinese projects in the region.

The train hijacking reflects Pakistan’s deteriorating security situation, worsened by militant activity following the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan. The attack raises concerns about the country’s stability and the government’s ability to manage autonomy rebellions.

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