The Institute of Strategic Risk Management (ISRM), is inviting security professionals to its latest Global Crisis Watch, number 279, taking place on Friday, June 14 11:00 BST. Highlighted topics will include Russian warships sailing into Havana, the latest Hamas and Israel ceasefire talks which are in turmoil, Emmanuel Macron’s promise not to resign if his party loses the next election, and the U.S sending another missile system into Ukraine to boost its defence capabilities. Read all about the topics and details of how to register, below.
Russian warships sailed into Havana
Four Russian naval vessels, including a nuclear-powered submarine and a frigate equipped with advanced weaponry, have arrived in Havana, Cuba, amid ongoing tensions with the West over the Ukraine conflict. The Cuban government asserts the vessels carry no nuclear arms and pose no threat, a stance echoed by U.S. officials, who are closely monitoring the visit. This maneuver is widely interpreted as a strategic message from Moscow to Washington, highlighting Russia’s ability to project power close to the U.S. amidst global hostilities. The visit underscores the deepening ties between Russia and Cuba, with economic and political cooperation reminiscent of Cold War dynamics.
Hamas and Israel ceasefire talks in turmoil
Negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release are in jeopardy as Hamas proposes multiple amendments to the plan, some deemed workable by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others not. Hamas demands a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel’s initial response frames Hamas’s changes as a rejection. Despite diplomatic efforts by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt to finalise the deal, Israel remains divided, with far-right ministers opposing the U.S.-backed proposal and threatening to collapse Netanyahu’s government if it proceeds. The UN Security Council supports the proposal, but the situation remains complex and unresolved. The resignation this week of Benny Gantz, leader of the centrist National Unity Party and a leading contender as an alternative to Netanyahu as prime minister, is seen as further hardening the rejectionist policies Netanyahu’s hard right supporters on whom he is increasingly dependent.
Macron will not resign even if his party loses elections, in the aftermath of EU elections
French President Emmanuel Macron has announced snap parliamentary elections following a significant defeat in the European Parliament elections to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, which won 32% of the vote. Macron, lacking a majority in the French parliament, dissolved it and scheduled elections for June 30 and July 7. This move, while risky, aims to address the rising influence of the far-right and seeks a clear mandate for governance. Despite the uncertainty, Macron confirmed he will not step down if his party loses, emphasising the importance of maintaining liberal values and a strong European Union against nationalist sentiments.
The USA are sending another Patriot missile system to Ukraine to boost defence capabilities
The U.S. will send another Patriot missile system to Ukraine following President Biden’s approval, responding to Kyiv’s urgent calls for more air defences amid heavy Russian attacks on the Kharkiv region. This will be the second Patriot system provided by the U.S. to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelensky has been advocating for additional Patriot systems to defend against frequent Russian missile strikes. The decision comes as defense leaders prepare to meet in Brussels to discuss Ukraine’s security needs. The new system will be relocated from Poland, where it was protecting U.S. troops. The hard-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) boycotted President Zelensky’s speech to the German Bundestag on Wednesday, claiming that he was a ‘war and beggar president’ who had no mandate and was sacrificing Ukrainian lives for an unwinnable war.
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