The Institute of Strategic Risk Management (ISRM) has released details of its latest Global Crisis Watch, number 289. Taking place Friday, August 23 at 10:00 BST, highlighted topics include Ukraine continuing its push into Russia, the ongoing lack of a ceasefire in Gaza, the intensifying US election race, and Venezuela protests. Read more about the topics and register below.
Ukraine continues its push into Russia
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine controls 92 settlements in Russia’s Kursk region and has captured the largest number of Russian prisoners in a single operation. During a meeting with foreign diplomatic officials, Zelenskyy mentioned that Ukraine now controls over 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory. He noted that the captured Russian prisoners might be included in a future prisoner exchange, marking Ukraine’s most significant effort to free its citizens from Russian captivity. Zelenskyy described Ukraine’s actions as “proactive, preventive defense” and emphasized that these efforts have significantly impacted Russia. Meanwhile, Russian authorities have reported evacuating more than 121,000 people from the Kursk region and have opened 84 temporary accommodation centers for those displaced. On Sunday, Zelenskyy clarified that the military incursion’s goal is to create a “buffer zone” to prevent further Russian attacks across the border. He added that if Ukraine’s partners lifted restrictions on using long-range weapons on Russian territory, there would be no need for Ukrainian forces to physically enter the Kursk region. Zelenskyy reiterated that Ukraine is not interested in holding Russian territory long-term.
Still no signs of a ceasefire in Gaza, despite efforts
Mediators are set to meet again in Egypt this week to work on finalizing a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the urgency of reaching a deal that would see the return of hostages held by Hamas and provide relief to Palestinians after 10 months of conflict. Blinken’s latest visit to the Middle East, his ninth since the conflict began, follows renewed optimism among mediators, including the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar. However, Hamas has expressed dissatisfaction with the current proposal, and Israel has indicated certain areas where it is unwilling to compromise. During his talks in Tel Aviv, Blinken highlighted the importance of this moment, calling it perhaps the last opportunity to secure the release of hostages and establish a ceasefire. He also warned against actions that could derail the process or escalate the conflict further. Israeli President Isaac Herzog expressed gratitude for U.S. support and spoke of the challenges Israel faces due to recent attacks. As talks are expected to continue in Cairo, Blinken will travel to Egypt after his meetings with Israeli leaders. Negotiators are working on a proposal that would see Hamas release hostages in phases, while Israel would withdraw its forces from Gaza and release Palestinian prisoners. However, disagreements remain, particularly over Israel’s demand to maintain a military presence along key areas of the Gaza border. Despite these challenges, Blinken urged both sides to seize this opportunity to reach an agreement, stressing the importance of saying “yes” to peace.
The American election race heats up
With just three months remaining until the 2024 election, Chicago is hosting the Democratic National Convention (DNC). It marks a pivotal moment in the lead-up to November’s election, especially after President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside, making Vice-President KamalaHarris the party’s presidential nominee. The convention kicked off on Monday with a highly anticipated and emotional address from President Biden, who received overwhelming support from the crowd, punctuated by chants of “Thank you, Joe.” The evening’s energy set the tone for the week, with Tuesday featuring the traditional roll call vote, where state delegations formally declared their backing for the Harris-Walz ticket. The night culminated in powerful speeches from former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama, who emphasized the importance of unity and voter turnout in what they described as a critical election for the nation’s future.
The convention’s significance extends beyond the Democratic Party, as it has attracted attention from figures across the political spectrum. The week’s events have been carefully orchestrated to maintain momentum leading up to Thursday, when Vice-President Harris formally accepted the presidential nomination. Her speech, themed “For the Future,” outline hers vision for the nation and her plans to build on the Biden administration’s achievements while addressing new challenges. Meanwhile, Republican nominee Donald Trump has launched a series of counterprogramming events to draw attention away from the DNC. Speaking at a rally in North Carolina, the first one since the assassination attempt, Trump criticized the Democratic convention, particularly the Obamas’ speeches, and framed the upcoming election as a battle for the nation’s soul. He has also intensified his attacks on Harris, labeling her as the “most radical left person ever to run for high political office in our country,” while his campaign focuses on defining her to the electorate before her momentum grows.
Protests continue in Venezuela, disputing the Elections
Opposition supporters have staged widespread protests across Venezuela and internationally in response to Nicolás Maduro’s disputed victory in the July 28 presidential election. Thousands of demonstrators gathered in the capital, Caracas, where opposition leader María Corina Machado, who had been in hiding due to accusations of insurrection, emerged to lead the protests. She called for continued resistance and emphasized that the voice of the people must be heard, urging security forces to support the opposition. Many protesters waved copies of election records that they claim prove opposition candidate Edmundo González won with nearly 67% of the vote, in contrast to the National Electoral Council’s (CNE) official results, which declared Maduro the winner with just under 52%. The CNE, controlled by Maduro’s allies, has been accused by the opposition of functioning as an extension of the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), undermining the election’s credibility. Since the disputed results were announced, Venezuela has seen a significant crackdown on dissent, with more than 2,400 arrests and at least 23 deaths reported during clashes between protesters and security forces. The protests have also gained international momentum, with rallies held in cities around the world, including Spain, Australia, the United Kingdom, and several Latin American countries. The European Union, the United States, and numerous Latin American nations have refused to recognize Maduro’s victory, and the UN has condemned the election for its lack of transparency and integrity. As tensions escalate, the opposition continues to demand a transition of power and an end to what they describe as Maduro’s authoritarian rule.
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