According to North Star Support Group (NSSG) flexibility and resilience key to keeping pace with fast-moving risks and uncertainty. As we begin the new year, organisations will face a number of headwinds, and those who are creative, agile, dynamic, and flexible in their risk management approach are likely to have better potential to unlock opportunities. To help organisations face these challenges, NSSG has released its Global Risk outlook for 2025.
The report details how this year will see a great deal of uncertainty across the globe with complex risks driven by geopolitical, political, economic, technological, climatic, financial, and societal factors.
Current indicators point towards volatility and fragility as multiple driving forces work in concert to amplify the effects of various risks as well as potentially identify
opportunities.
Here is a taster of NSSG’s outlook for the year ahead.
Trump’s weaponisation of tariffs and trade is already producing the desired effects, illustrated by Colombia’s reluctance to accept deportees from the US after it came under the threat of tariffs. Canada and Mexico have come under increased threat as the Trump administration seeks “cooperation” on cross—border narcotics and human trafficking, i11ega1 migration, and “pass—through investments” from China.
The Trump administration’s threat of high tariffs is a powerful negotiating tool, and the most vulnerable countries will be those with high trade deficits with the US, including China, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland, Germany, Canada, and 3apan, among others.
The US-China trade war, the COVID pandemic and the Ukraine War deeply impacted the global supply chain and caused mass disruption to economic stability. With the anticipated trade wars and tariffs that the Trump administration will wage against the global economy, there are increasing anxieties over economic growth and stability. Foreign governments will face limited options, compelling businesses to look at boosting friend—shoring or near—shoring opportunities in order to reduce their exposure to broader geopolitical shocks.
Equally important is the fact that these governments view these options as a way of tempering the anxieties of their citizens. The challenge, however, is for these governments to avoid the pull of regionalised trade wars, particularly among states that are not aligned geopolitically.
While China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) slowed in 2024, it is due to revive itself in 2025, particularly in the regions alienated from the West. Countries in dire need of infrastructure development as well as those with resources needed to advance China’s economic development will stand to benefit. The BRI is an effective diplomatic tool in Beijing, but risks crowding out competition from non-aligned Western states.
To read the full report, click here
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