Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness has released its latest briefing for the MENA region detailing how the picture there remains volatile, with diplomacy, military reinforcement and economic disruption advancing in parallel rather than producing a clear path to de-escalation.
Iran has hardened its negotiating stance while Washington continues to add forces to the region, reinforcing concerns that pressure will intensify if diplomacy fails. Gulf states are condemning direct and proxy attacks more openly, while Kuwait’s airport fuel-tank strike and continuing missile and drone activity show critical infrastructure remains exposed. At the same time, businesses and governments are adjusting through alternative land routes, uneven flight recovery and selective maritime access rather than restored normality. Oil prices have eased from peak panic, but fuel, fertiliser and freight pressures continue feeding into global costs.
Risk indicators
Security Risk: Gulf states now face a dual threat from direct strikes and proxy-origin attacks from Iraq. US troop reinforcements are widening escalation options rather than narrowing them. Risk level: SEVERE
Aviation Risk: Uneven airline recovery means some hubs are functioning, but regional aviation resilience remains fragmented. Risk level: HIGH
Maritime Risk: “Non-hostile vessel” rules are turning Hormuz access into a political clearance problem. Red Sea experience suggests securing Hormuz will be slower, costlier and less reliable than markets want to assume. Risk level: Severe
Energy Risk: Fuel shocks are now hitting overseas consumers directly, showing Gulf disruption is transmitting globally. Fertiliser disruption is raising food-inflation risk, expanding the crisis beyond crude and LNG. Risk level: HIGH
Selective reopening, heavy intercepts and fragile de-escalation signals
On yesterday afternoon, Wednesday March 25, Global Situational Awareness detailed how diplomacy, military positioning and political pressure were moving at once rather than in sequence. Reported US ceasefire terms passed to Iran through Pakistan suggest active backchannel efforts, but attacks and interceptions continue across the Gulf, Israel, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon.
Washington is also reinforcing its regional posture with additional troops and missile-defence support, showing that deterrence remains active despite talk of de- escalation. Gulf states are publicly distancing themselves from wider war even as they condemn Iranian strikes on civilian and strategic sites. Markets have steadied on hopes of talks, but Trump’s slipping domestic popularity and rising war fatigue add fresh uncertainty to Washington’s next steps.
Operational Impact
Aviation
• Emirates has recovered to about 75% of normal capacity, while Etihad is near 50%, showing partial restoration but continued disruption to Gulf hub operations.
• Air France-KLM has extended suspensions to Dubai, Riyadh, Tel Aviv and Beirut routes.
• Qatar Airways is operating at only about 20% of normal capacity.
Logistics G Supply Chain
• Ferrari and Maserati have suspended most Middle East deliveries, showing the war is now disrupting European automotive supply chains into the Gulf.
• UAE supermarkets are exploring alternative land, air and sea routes, including long overland corridors from Europe, to keep shelves stocked and contain inflation pressures.
Maritime
• Cosco Shipping Lines has resumed container bookings to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq, signalling selective trade reopening rather than full confidence in Hormuz.
• A Bangchak Corporation tanker only transited Hormuz after direct Thai diplomatic coordination with Iran.
• NYK Group says 45 Japan-related ships remain stranded in the Gulf.
Energy Markets
• Saudi Arabia’s ADES has temporarily suspended some offshore rigs, showing the conflict is now disrupting upstream drilling activity as well as exports.
• QatarEnergy says it may need force majeure on some LNG contracts, affecting buyers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea and China
Download the full briefing below
For more Middle East news, click here
