In its latest MENA Weekly briefing for the week ending Friday, June 5, Global Situational Awareness details all the latest developments in the Middle East region, including the US striking Iranian targets, provoking IRGC retaliation, Israel-Hezbollah clashes continuing despite ceasefire, the US pushing Oman to break ties with Iran following Trump threats, and more. Below is an extract with the full report available for download.
Iran/Kuwait/Bahrain — US strikes Iranian targets, provoking IRGC retaliation — SEVERE
Situation Update
Another wave of attacks has occurred between the United States (US), Iran, and countries in the Gulf. On 31 May 2026, the US military announced that it had conducted “self-defence strikes” in Goruk and the island of Qeshm, targeting Iranian radar air defences, a ground control station, and two one-way attack drones. The strikes were justified as a “response to aggressive Iranian actions” after Iran allegedly shot down a US MQ-1 drone operating over international waters. On 01 June 2026, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that its aerospace force had targeted the source of what it called a US attack on a telecommunications tower on Sirik Island in Hormozgan province. One day later, the US fired a Hellfire missile at a tanker heading toward Iran as part of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports, which began on 13 April 2026. Then, on 03 June 2026, one person was killed and flights were suspended in Kuwait after Iranian missile and drone strikes targeted Kuwait International Airport. With US Central Command (CENTCOM) stating that two of Iran’s missiles heading for Kuwait had fallen short or broken apart in flight, while several others failed to reach their targets, the attack could have been far worse. On the same day, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency reported that the IRGC had fired missiles and drones at an airbase and the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. However, CENTCOM confirmed that it had intercepted the projectiles.
Assessment/Impact/Business Implications
There have been competing narratives from both sides regarding the latest escalation. While the situation threatens the fragile ceasefire, with the US and Iran having traded strikes several times since agreeing to a ceasefire in early April 2026, such intensifications have avoided a resort to all-out fighting. This is illustrative of the strong factors pushing both sides away from a resumption of the war. The targeting of Kuwait and Bahrain falls within Iran’s strategy, which has seen the IRGC target countries across the Gulf where US military bases are located. The suspension of flights to and from Kuwait International Airport is a cogent example of the type of impact Tehran hopes to trigger, widening the conflict.
Strong concerns persist regarding the pursuit of a diplomatic solution. On 01 June 2026, US President Donald Trump wrote on social media that critics should “just sit back and relax”, maintaining that “Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us”. However, with Trump regularly making such assertions over the last two months to no avail, his words are beginning to lose impact. Political pressure to end the war is likely to continue, as demonstrated by the US House of Representatives’ passing of a measure that seeks to prevent a resumption of the war.
Israel/Lebanon — Israel-Hezbollah clashes continue despite ceasefire — SEVERE
Situation Update
On 01 June 2026, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced that, having spoken with both sides, Israel and Lebanon had “agreed that all shooting will stop”. His push for a pause in hostilities came as Iran warned that Israel’s actions in Lebanon were threatening peace negotiations between the US and Iran. Despite the ceasefire having
some effect, further violence followed, with Hezbollah fighters targeting Israeli tanks in the southern Lebanese towns of Haddatha and Bayada with missiles and shells. Additionally, on the same date, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he had ordered strikes on “terror targets” in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Following Netanyahu’s statement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that a “violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts”. This sentiment was echoed by Iran’s Tasnim news agency, which reported that Tehran could suspend indirect negotiations with the US over Israeli military actions in Lebanon. The state- affiliated station also threatened that Tehran and its allies could “activate other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandab Strait”. Some cause for cautious optimism came on 03 June 2026, when a joint statement from the US, Lebanon, and Israel was released outlining the parties’ agreement to renew their fragile ceasefire. However, doubt was again cast on this when Lebanese state media reported that Israeli strikes had continued in the south of Lebanon the following day. Representatives from Israel and Lebanon will meet again on 22 June 2026 to hold further talks “with a view toward reaching a comprehensive agreement”.
Assessment/Impact/Business Implications
Trump is believed to be concerned that further escalation in Lebanon could jeopardise a wider deal to end the war between the US, Israel, and Iran. On 03 June 2026, he confirmed reports that he had called Netanyahu “crazy” in an expletive-filled phone exchange over Israel’s campaign in Lebanon. The comments are illustrative of the scale of pressure being felt by involved parties, as well as the implications of the situation in Lebanon on US-Iran negotiations. The security situation in Lebanon remains severe and another breakdown cannot be ruled out. The potential implications of the war with Iran further stress the extent of the associated risks.
It is difficult to ascertain the extent to which Iran’s threats concerning the Bab al-Mandab Strait are genuine. Although the Houthis launched missiles against Israel in March 2026, this came after a month of inaction at the start of the war, demonstrating calculated restraint. Such a stance could be considered wise by the group’s leadership, given that relentless US-Israeli airstrikes throughout 2025 have severely degraded their operational capacity. Nevertheless, the prospect of both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb being cut off at the same time will be an immense concern for global markets.
Download the full report below
For more Middle East news, click here
