Geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness has released its MENA Weekly report for the week ending March 27. It details how Tehran has rejected the US’s 15-point peace plan, the allowance by Tehran to let non-hostile ships pass safely through Strait of Hormuz. It describes how Israel has set out an intention to control buffer zone in Lebanon, how Libya has secured a drifting Russian tanker after ecological alarm, and more.
The report details a situational update, assessment, impact and business implications for each subject.
Tehran has rejected the US’s 15-point peace plan
Iranian Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaghari has mocked United States (US) President Donald Trump over comments he made concerning alleged ceasefire negotiations. In a recorded video statement that aired on state television, Zolfghari asked: “Have your internal conflicts reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?”. The rhetorical question came after Trump claimed that US officials had held “very strong talks” with Iran regarding “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”. He subsequently ordered the US military to postpone strikes on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, having threatened on 21 March 2026 to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran failed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Zolfaghari’s comments undermine Trump’s assertion, leading some analysts to suggest that his claim may have been aimed at calming volatile energy markets rather than providing an accurate window into the diplomatic situation. Trump has since said that Iran’s leaders were “afraid” to admit to having held talks as “they’ll be killed by their own people”.
Following the initial confusion over whether any diplomatic negotiations had taken place, reports emerged suggesting that the Trump administration had sent a 15-point ceasefire plan to Iran through Pakistan, which had offered to act as an intermediary. Iran’s state-owned Press TV subsequently said that the regime had rejected a list of points sent by the Trump administration. Iran reportedly subsequently outlined five conditions to end the conflict. These include the halting of aggression and assassinations, the establishment of mechanisms to prevent another war, the payment of reparations, a conclusion to the war on all fronts, and international recognition of Iran’s right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
Assessment/Impact/Business Implications
Trump’s remarks regarding the delay in targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure resulted in global stock markets rising and oil prices falling. However, with Washington deploying thousands of additional soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, the cautious optimism that followed Trump’s comments has declined considerably. While the Trump administration appears to be increasingly interested in an exit strategy, exactly what this would involve remains largely unclear. The mixed messaging coming from Washington suggests that Trump is still undecided about the best course of action. With measures being implemented to increase the US’s military presence in the region, it appears that escalating the conflict while simultaneously pushing for a negotiated settlement is the path ahead in the short-term. It is unlikely that Israel will be supportive of any conclusion that does not dismantle the Iranian regime, which remains intact despite nearly a month of fighting.
Download the full report below
Yesterday, March 26, Global Situational Awareness’s afternoon briefing detailed how the regional picture remained, with harsher political messaging arriving at the same time as selective diplomatic signalling and deeper commercial adaptation. Donald Trump’s latest warning that Iran should “get serious” quickly has reinforced the coercive tone around negotiations, even as Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey remain involved in indirect message-passing. Iran is still publicly resisting the US position, while Gulf governments are signalling that any eventual outcome must address missiles, drones, proxies and sea-lane disruption rather than produce only a temporary ceasefire. Commercially, the crisis is moving from immediate shock into a more expensive adjustment phase: energy-asset repair estimates are climbing, aviation rerouting continues, and trade, inflation and supply-chain pressures are broadening well beyond the Gulf.
Operational impact
Aviation
• Jazeera Airways has opened Dammam as a second Saudi operating base, showing carriers are using Saudi territory to rebuild Kuwait-linked passenger and cargo connectivity rather than wait for a normal airport restart.
• Emirates is back to nearly three-quarters of pre-conflict capacity, while Etihad, Air Arabia and flydubai remain below normal.
Logistics G Supply Chain
• India has told automakers to optimise production and use less fuel-intensive processes, showing disruption is now shaping factory planning.
• Maersk says its Gulf land-bridge routes via Jeddah, Salalah, Sohar and Khor Fakkan are still carrying roughly 35,000 containers per week, showing operators are shifting essential cargo inland.
Maritime
• Malaysia says its vessels have been cleared to transit Hormuz after leader- level contacts, showing access is increasingly being negotiated state-to- state rather than governed by open commercial predictability.
• Hapag-Lloyd says the conflict is costing it $40 million to $50 million per week, with six vessels and 150 crew still stranded in the Gulf.
Energy Markets
• The Philippines has activated a $333 million fuel-security fund, showing import- dependent Asian states are now spending public money to protect downstream supply chains from Gulf-linked volatility.
• Mubadala Energy has secured another Indonesian gas block, reinforcing how Gulf capital is still pushing outward on gas diversification.
Download the briefing below
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