In its MENA Weekly briefing for the week ending May 8, geopolitical intelligence risk advisory firm Global Situational Awareness focuses on everything that’s happened in the past week in the Middle Region – in Iran, where the US launched and then paused its “Project Freedom”, Iran launching missile and drone attacks against UAE, in Israel, where Benjamin Netanyahu is facing corruption charges, and in Libya, where a US initiative has targeted national unification through rival families. Details on all this and more can be found in the downloadable PDF. Below is an extract.
Iran – US launches and then pauses “Project Freedom” – Situation Update
On 03 May 2026, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced Project Freedom, a new military operation aimed at guiding tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that “guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members” were being used to support the operation. Trump portrayed the move as a humanitarian gesture “meant to free up people, companies, and countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong”. According to Washington, 22,500 mariners on 1,550 commercial vessels remain trapped in the Gulf; there have been growing concerns over dwindling supplies and the effects on sailors’ physical and mental health.
CENTCOM confirmed that two US-flagged merchant vessels had successfully transited through the Strait and the shipping company Maersk also acknowledged that one of its vessels had exited the Gulf, accompanied by the US military. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps denied that any vessels had passed through the waterway. Tehran subsequently claimed that it had fired at US warships, including striking one with two missiles, a claim that CENTCOM quickly refuted. Whereas the US announced that it had sunk a number of Iranian small boats. The escalating situation threatened the ceasefire implemented between the pair on 08 April 2026. However, two days after the operation’s announcement, on 05 May 2026, Trump stated that the initiative would be paused “for a short period of time” to see whether the US and Iran could reach an agreement.
Assessment/Impact/Business Implications
With Trump opting to pause Project Freedom, the limited amount of time in which it was operational has made it difficult for analysts to ascertain on what scale the US military would be able to reopen the waterway. While it could be true that Trump reached the decision to facilitate a meaningful dialogue in pursuit of achieving a peace agreement, it may also be the case that Project Freedom was struggling to have the desired impact. Considering the risk being taken on by the US military, Washington may have assessed that the risk-to-reward ratio was too unfavourable to keep the plan operational.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as between the US and Iran more broadly, remains fluid. While there has been some justification for cautious optimism regarding a potential peace settlement, with Trump also threatening to bomb Iran at a “much higher level” if Tehran refuses the 14-point memorandum of understanding, another escalation cannot be ruled out. The number of ships to have transited through the Strait under Project Freedom was far from enough to come anywhere close to addressing the global energy crisis. It remains unclear whether its resumption, should peace talks fail, can achieve the results necessary to address the global energy crisis.
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